In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available bets. Kalshi stands out as the sole US-regulated option for American participants. Manifold excels for casual, play-money forecasting without financial stakes. For those based in Europe, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the strongest choice.
The prediction market sector has surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most robust pricing in political and digital asset categories |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts. Spans politics, digital assets, athletics, scientific events, entertainment |
| Fees | No house edge. Typical bid-ask spread ranges from 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (blockchain wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide (excluding US). Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional participants leveraging analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction platform. It provides access to US residents who cannot participate on Polymarket, and has experienced considerable expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts and regulatory constraints that restrict certain categories of bets.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This makes it an excellent environment for developing forecasting skills and participating in crowd-sourced predictions — though it lacks real financial incentives. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus assembles quantitative estimates from its community of experienced forecasters. While no monetary rewards are available, it excels at establishing forecast accuracy records and addressing global risk scenarios. Academic institutions frequently reference its data when studying prediction quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process enormous volumes across sports and outcome markets annually. Strengths include conventional money transfers, regulatory oversight by the FCA, and substantial sports betting depth. Limitations encompass a 2-5% rake on profits, absence of blockchain-based assets, and comparatively sparse political outcome selection versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading liquidity and the broadest contract catalogue: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies the blockchain element while preserving complete access to Polymarket's underlying order book. Start trading on PolyGram →