In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi represents the sole regulatory-approved option for American participants. Manifold delivers an engaging environment for casual forecasters using virtual currency. Continental European traders will find Polymarket accessed through PolyGram to be the standout choice.
Since 2024, prediction markets have experienced remarkable growth. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up heading into 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly transaction volume. Most substantial contract depth in political outcomes and digital assets |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts spanning elections, blockchain, athletics, research, entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house edge. Typical bid-ask spread ranges from 1–3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon blockchain (digital assets mandatory) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional participants leveraging proprietary research or data advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction exchange. It welcomes US-based participants who cannot access Polymarket and has expanded substantially. Trade-offs include narrower contract selection relative to Polymarket, and stringent American regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on a virtual-currency model ("mana") rather than cash. It excels as a learning environment for honing forecasting abilities and collaborative community analysis — unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus compiles forecast estimates from its specialist community. While it operates without financial stakes, it provides valuable opportunities to establish a verifiable forecast history and specialises in international and security-related predictions. Researchers regularly reference its data when studying forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting-exchange model and processes enormous sums across sports and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include traditional currency settlement, regulatory approval from the FCA, and substantial sports-market depth. Limitations include 2-5% commission structure on net gains, absence of blockchain-based contracts, and comparatively sparse election-related offerings versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the US seeking maximum market depth and contract breadth: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions while granting full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order book. Start trading on PolyGram →