In this guide
Successful prediction market traders operate from disciplined, structured schedules rather than ad-hoc decision-making — they employ a methodical weekly approach that maximises research productivity. This is a battle-tested 5-hour weekly system.
Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)
- Survey the week ahead for significant occurrences: central bank announcements, electoral contests, sporting fixtures, economic indicators
- Browse PolyGram for recently launched markets
- Pinpoint 3-5 markets where you possess a competitive advantage during this week
- Assess current holdings — has fresh intelligence surfaced that warrants position adjustment?
Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)
- Conduct comprehensive analysis on each shortlisted market
- Establish your own probability assessment without referencing prevailing market quotes
- Weigh your assessment against the quoted price — commit capital only when the differential justifies entry
- Determine Kelly criterion sizing for every trade you commit to
Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)
- Place this week's trades when liquidity is highest
- Examine markets settling this week — document actual results against your forecasts
- Refresh your calibration log
Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)
- Tally weekly returns and cumulative Brier score
- Spot recurring patterns or blind spots in your forecast accuracy
- Consume one pertinent academic study or expert commentary relevant to your specialisation
FAQ
- Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?
- Absolutely — numerous successful traders operate on fewer than 10 hours weekly. The calibre of your analytical work supersedes the sheer volume of hours invested.
- What tools do I need for this routine?
- PolyGram platform for transacting, a spreadsheet for record-keeping, and your preferred information sources for domain expertise. Expensive or exotic software is unnecessary.