The Prediction Market Weekly Routine: 5 Hours to Profitable Trading

Profitable prediction market traders don't trade randomly — they follow a systematic weekly routine that allocates research time efficiently. Here's a proven 5-hour weekly framework.

Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)

• Review upcoming week's key events: Fed meetings, elections, sports events, data releases
• Scan PolyGram for new markets opened since last week
• Identify 3-5 markets where you have potential edge this week
• Check existing positions — any new information requiring updates?

Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)

• Research each identified market thoroughly
• Form your independent probability estimate before checking market prices
• Compare your estimate to market price — only enter if gap is significant
• Calculate Kelly position size for each trade you decide to enter

Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)

• Execute this week's positions during high-liquidity hours
• Review any markets resolving this week — record outcomes vs your predictions
• Update your calibration spreadsheet

Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)

• Calculate week's P&L and running Brier score
• Identify any systematic errors in your recent predictions
• Read one relevant research paper or market analysis piece in your focus domain

FAQ

Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?

Yes — many profitable traders spend under 10 hours per week. Quality of research matters more than quantity of time.

What tools do I need for this routine?

PolyGram app for trading, a spreadsheet for tracking, and your domain research sources. No special tools required.