In this guide
Successful prediction market traders operate with discipline and structure rather than impulse — they adhere to a methodical weekly schedule that maximises research productivity. This is a battle-tested 5-hour weekly system.
Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)
- Survey the week ahead for significant developments: central bank announcements, electoral contests, sporting fixtures, economic indicators
- Browse PolyGram for markets that have launched in the preceding seven days
- Shortlist 3-5 markets where you possess a competitive advantage during the coming week
- Assess your current holdings — has fresh intelligence emerged that warrants position adjustment?
Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)
- Conduct rigorous analysis on each shortlisted market
- Establish your own probability assessment independent of prevailing market prices
- Weigh your assessment against the current market valuation — commit capital only when the discrepancy justifies entry
- Determine appropriate stake size using the Kelly criterion for every position you initiate
Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)
- Place this week's trades when liquidity is at its peak
- Examine markets settling during the current week — document actual results relative to your forecasts
- Refresh your calibration log
Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)
- Tally weekly returns and cumulative Brier score
- Spot recurring patterns or biases in your recent forecasting
- Consume one pertinent academic study or specialist commentary within your chosen subject area
FAQ
- Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?
- Absolutely — numerous winning traders operate on fewer than 10 hours weekly. The calibre of your research outweighs the hours invested.
- What tools do I need for this routine?
- PolyGram platform for transacting, a spreadsheet application for record-keeping, and your preferred information sources for domain expertise. Expensive or exotic software is unnecessary.