In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are financial venues where traders exchange contracts tied to the likelihood of forthcoming occurrences. Each contract's market price embodies the aggregate probability assessment held by all participants regarding whether that event will materialise. PolyGram operates as a UK-based prediction market platform offering exposure to international events.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Every prediction market contract poses a straightforward proposition: will Event X occur before Date Y? Take this scenario: "Will the Labour Party secure victory in the forthcoming UK general election?" Two distinct contract types exist:
- YES: Should Labour prevail, this contract settles at $1.00
- NO: Should Labour fail to win, this contract settles at $1.00
When YES trades at $0.65, the market is pricing in a 65% likelihood of a Labour victory. Traders holding bullish views purchase YES; those with bearish convictions buy NO. Correct positions generate returns; incorrect ones result in losses on the capital deployed.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- Zero overround: Conventional bookmakers embed a profit margin — prediction markets eliminate this. YES and NO prices combine to approximately $1.00
- Early exit available: Liquidate your position at any moment prior to final settlement
- Full visibility: Market participants access complete pricing information and order-book details openly
- Distributed intelligence: Contract valuations synthesise insights from vast trader networks — typically surpassing conventional polling in accuracy
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Electoral contests, public sentiment indices, legislative decisions, executive transitions. These dominate liquidity and trading volume on major venues such as Polymarket.
Sports Markets
Game conclusions, championship victors, athlete performance metrics, divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
Digital asset valuations, blockchain protocol changes, fund product approvals, governmental regulatory developments.
World Event Markets
Macroeconomic figures, meteorological catastrophes, technological breakthroughs, cultural accolades.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
Prediction markets occupy uncertain regulatory territory within the United Kingdom. The Gambling Commission has neither formally authorised nor explicitly prohibited them. Operators including PolyGram function via distributed-ledger settlement mechanisms, distinguishing them from conventional gambling frameworks.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical evidence demonstrates that prediction markets consistently deliver superior forecasting performance relative to institutional analysts and conventional survey methodologies. Polymarket's track record includes accurate calls on the 2024 US presidential race, numerous continental European electoral contests, and significant blockchain-related developments—often weeks or months in advance of conventional consensus.