Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The question hinges on whether Imam Khomeini International Airport will resume commercial flight operations before the end of June 2026. The crowd has priced this at certainty (100% YES), implying traders believe at least one aircraft will push back from a gate and take off during the settlement window. This reflects confidence that whatever disruption prompted the market's creation will be resolved within eighteen months.

Historical precedent suggests major Iranian airports recover operational capacity relatively quickly after temporary closures. Tehran's Mehrabad International Airport, the country's busiest hub, has weathered multiple disruptions—including the January 2020 incident—and resumed flights within days. IKA, which opened in 2004 as a secondary international gateway, has similarly demonstrated resilience. The 100% probability reflects this pattern: complete, sustained closure of Iran's second-largest international airport for over a year would be exceptional.

The critical catalysts centre on sanctions enforcement, infrastructure maintenance, and scheduling announcements from Iran Air and foreign carriers. Traders should monitor statements from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation regarding runway or terminal repairs, as well as any updates from airlines operating Tehran routes—particularly Turkish Airlines, Emirates, and Qatar Airways, which historically serve IKA. Recent reporting on Iranian aviation capacity suggests operational constraints rather than permanent closure, though geopolitical escalation could alter this calculus. The settlement mechanism's specificity—requiring actual takeoff rather than mere reopening—creates minimal ambiguity, though FlightAware's coverage of Iranian airports occasionally lags official schedules.

Methodology

We track Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.