Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially branded as Claude Mythos to the general public. The market prices this outcome at 0% probability through June 2026, reflecting the absence of any public roadmap, announcement, or naming convention suggesting such a release within the settlement window. Anthropic's current product line consists of Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus variants, with no indication that a "Mythos-class" model is in development or scheduled for public availability.

Historical precedent from comparable AI labs suggests naming conventions shift rarely and deliberately. OpenAI's GPT line has maintained consistent branding across major releases; Anthropic itself has stuck with its three-tier naming scheme since Opus's introduction in 2024. A wholesale rebrand to "Mythos" would signal either a fundamental architectural departure or a strategic repositioning—both of which typically follow major funding rounds, board decisions, or competitive pressure. The 0% crowd probability reflects rational scepticism: no credible reporting has surfaced plans for such a model, and Anthropic has given no public signal of imminent naming changes.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for two categories of catalyst. First, any official Anthropic announcement regarding product roadmap, new model classes, or naming strategy—particularly around funding events or earnings-adjacent moments if the company moves toward IPO disclosure. Second, competitive announcements from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or xAI that might prompt Anthropic to accelerate or rebrand product lines. Until such signals materialise, the 0% pricing appears anchored to the absence of evidence rather than evidence of absence, leaving minimal room for contrarian positioning before late 2025.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.