Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed in late March 2026 that Claude Mythos, an unreleased model described as a significant step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity capabilities, had entered early access testing following a data leak. The company has neither announced nor committed to a public release date, leaving the market window of fourteen months to assess whether the model will reach general availability before the end of April 2026.

The 0% implied probability reflects a consensus view that Anthropic rarely rushes unreleased models to market immediately after security incidents. Historical precedent suggests the company takes methodical approaches to capability releases: Claude 3 family models were announced with staggered availability across tiers, and previous versions underwent extended testing phases. The leak itself, whilst confirming Mythos exists and demonstrating technical maturity, does not typically accelerate release timelines for major model deployments. Value may exist only if Anthropic treats the compromised secrecy as reason to accelerate rather than delay—a contrarian read against the company's demonstrated pattern.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements and earnings calls for any mention of Mythos availability. The settlement window closes 30 April 2026, meaning any release announcement would need to occur within weeks rather than months. Anthropic's track record suggests product launches follow deliberate communication strategies rather than reactive timelines, making near-term releases unlikely absent extraordinary circumstances. The current probability appears aligned with historical release patterns, though unexpected acceleration remains a low-probability tail event worth monitoring.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.