Bitcoin price on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market prices Bitcoin's noon ET close on Binance at zero probability for any specific price bracket, suggesting the crowd expects either extreme volatility, data unavailability, or settlement ambiguity on that date. August 2026 sits roughly 20 months forward, placing the resolution window well beyond typical institutional forecasting horizons and into territory where macro regime shifts become material variables. Bitcoin's historical volatility—annualised realised volatility routinely exceeds 60–80%—means a single day's noon snapshot carries genuine uncertainty even when broader directional conviction exists. The 0% implied probability across all brackets is unusual and likely reflects low liquidity or market participants' reluctance to commit capital to a distant, granular price point rather than genuine confidence in non-resolution.

Catalysts between now and August 2026 include Federal Reserve policy normalisation cycles, potential spot Bitcoin ETF adoption developments, and regulatory clarity from major jurisdictions. The 2024–2025 period has already seen significant institutional adoption acceleration; any major custody or derivatives infrastructure changes could reshape baseline volatility assumptions. Geopolitical tensions affecting risk appetite, corporate treasury allocations, and macroeconomic recession signals will all influence where Bitcoin trades at any given moment. The specificity of a noon ET close—rather than daily or weekly aggregates—introduces execution risk and potential flash-move distortions that historical price distributions may not fully capture.

Value hunters should consider whether the zero probability reflects genuine settlement risk or simply thin order books. A contrarian angle exists if one believes Bitcoin's volatility will compress or institutional adoption will stabilise price discovery by mid-2026, making specific bracket predictions more defensible than current pricing suggests.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.