Bitcoin price on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s settlement hinges on the Binance 1-minute close at noon ET on 13 July 2026, with the crowd assigning a 0% chance to any YES outcome. That near‑zero implied probability reflects a market consensus that the price will not hit the upper bracket required for a YES, even as BTC trades around $63,900 today, having fallen 45.7% from its October 2025 peak of $126,198[1][9].

Historically, July has often been a quiet month for Bitcoin, yet 2026 has been defined by sharp swings: a January high of $97,860 followed by a February low of $60,074, with the asset then oscillating between $65,000 and $73,000 in early March[2]. The current price sits near the lower end of that range, and the prevailing trend shows lower lows and lower highs, trapping BTC below key moving averages in what analysts describe as a bear market[4]. In such conditions, the 0% implied probability is not an outlier but a logical read of the downside bias.

Traders should watch the US macro calendar for July, particularly CPI and PPI releases, which have driven volatility in recent months, alongside any regulatory announcements from the SEC on crypto ETFs or spot approvals[2]. A sudden surge above $70,000 would be the first contrarian signal that the consensus is wrong, but with BTC down roughly 50% from its October high and ETF holders still accumulating despite the drop, the value spot likely lies in the NO side unless a catalyst reverses the trend[4][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.