Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing Bitcoin's spot price at the Binance BTC/USDT pair at noon ET on 11 June 2026, based on the 1-minute candle close. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that no single price bracket will materialise on that specific date and time—an unusual positioning for a binary outcome on an asset that will certainly trade at some level.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at noon snapshots has historically ranged 2–4% on ordinary trading days, though geopolitical shocks or Federal Reserve announcements can widen that considerably. The 18-month settlement window allows for substantial macro shifts: interest rate cycles, regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions, and institutional adoption patterns will all shape the underlying asset's trajectory. Previous noon-hour Bitcoin prices have clustered around established support and resistance levels rather than random points, suggesting that historical price action between now and June 2026 will anchor trader expectations more than pure speculation.

The key variables to monitor are US monetary policy signals (particularly any rate decisions or inflation data in early 2026), spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and the US dollar index will likely intensify if recession fears emerge. Traders should note that the 0% probability may reflect low liquidity or difficulty in predicting a precise intraday snapshot 18 months forward rather than genuine uncertainty about whether Bitcoin will trade at all on that date.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.