Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on Bitcoin's noon ET closing price on 13 June 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The crowd has assigned zero probability to a "Yes" resolution, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific price range or minimal trading activity. With settlement nearly two years away, the current 0% reading reflects the difficulty of pinpointing an exact intraday price point across such an extended timeframe rather than fundamental conviction about Bitcoin's trajectory.

Historical precedent shows that single-day price predictions for Bitcoin become increasingly unreliable beyond six-month horizons. Bitcoin's volatility—whilst lower during bull phases—still routinely produces 2–5% daily swings, and macroeconomic shocks can trigger larger moves. The 0% probability likely indicates traders view the range brackets as either too narrow or too specific to justify backing, rather than dismissing the possibility outright. Comparable fixed-date Bitcoin markets typically see modest participation when settlement dates exceed 18 months.

Key variables shaping Bitcoin's June 2026 trajectory include Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and regulatory developments in major markets. The next Bitcoin halving occurs in April 2024, historically followed by price volatility extending 12–18 months forward. Traders should monitor announcements from major exchanges regarding custody offerings, spot ETF performance data, and any significant macroeconomic policy changes. Geopolitical tensions affecting energy markets and inflation expectations will also influence Bitcoin's positioning during the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.