Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices Bitcoin's spot price on Binance at noon ET on 25 May 2026, with settlement tied to the 1-minute candle close at that precise moment. Current odds show 0% implied probability for "Yes," suggesting the crowd has assigned negligible likelihood to the event resolving affirmatively—a position that warrants scrutiny given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the extended timeframe involved.

Bitcoin's intraday price action at specific timestamps has historically been difficult to predict with confidence, particularly across a two-year horizon where macroeconomic conditions, regulatory shifts, and technological developments remain highly uncertain. The 0% probability reflects either extreme consensus around a particular price range or, more likely, a thin market with minimal trading activity. Comparable cryptocurrency markets settling on precise spot prices have shown that noon-hour liquidity on major exchanges typically favours tighter spreads, reducing execution risk but not eliminating the fundamental unpredictability of directional movement across such extended periods.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy signals, institutional Bitcoin adoption announcements, and any significant regulatory developments from major jurisdictions—particularly the US and EU—as these have historically driven multi-month price trends. Bitcoin's correlation with broader risk assets and equity market sentiment remains a key dependency. Recent volatility has been influenced by macroeconomic data releases and central bank communications, patterns likely to persist through 2026. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces a secondary consideration: intraday trading patterns and US market open dynamics on that particular date could influence the exact candle close, though predicting such micro-timing remains speculative.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.