Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing a 26% chance that Trump will announce a China tariff reduction, removal or suspension by the deadline, so the consensus view is clearly underdog rather than favourite. That is a fair read of the political backdrop: Beijing has been pushing for stability, but the recent summit output has been dominated by purchase commitments, working groups and sector-specific market access rather than any explicit tariff rollback. In comparable Trump-Xi episodes, headline-spinning trade language has usually been easier to secure than structural tariff relief, which tends to be more contentious and slower to land.

For traders, the key question is whether a late, definitive tariff statement appears in the White House’s follow-through to the Beijing summit. Reuters and other recent reporting around the talks has pointed to agricultural buys, Boeing orders and new U.S.-China trade and investment boards, while the White House’s fact sheet emphasised reciprocity and concrete sectoral deals rather than tariff cuts. The value case for “Yes” depends on whether those boards are used to announce a limited tariff suspension, perhaps on a narrow product set, before the window closes; the “No” case is that the administration will bank the optics of Chinese purchases and leave tariffs unchanged, since only a clear, China-specific reduction would settle this market in the affirmative.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.