July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The BLS will publish the seasonally adjusted monthly change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in August 2026, reporting July's inflation momentum. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any YES outcome, suggesting near-universal expectation of a specific range or outcome that the market's resolution criteria will not satisfy.

Historical monthly CPI moves provide context for assessing this consensus. Between 2022 and 2024, monthly changes ranged from −0.1% to +0.8%, with most readings clustering between 0.2% and 0.5%. The 0% crowd probability here likely reflects confidence that July 2026 will fall within a predetermined band—most commonly the 0.1% to 0.4% range that has dominated recent years. Markets pricing zero YES probability typically indicate traders expect the outcome to miss a specific threshold entirely, whether that threshold sits above or below the consensus forecast. The absence of any YES backing suggests the market structure may define YES narrowly, making the favourite a non-event by design rather than a genuine forecasting uncertainty.

Traders should monitor June 2026 CPI data (released early July) and any significant commodity or wage pressures reported in the interim. Energy prices, used vehicle markets, and shelter costs remain the primary drivers of month-to-month variation. The Federal Reserve's policy stance through mid-2026 will shape expectations around disinflation trajectory. The BLS release on 12 August at 8:30 AM ET will settle the market; any revision to prior months' figures could affect interpretation of the July print's significance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.