Bitcoin price on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices Bitcoin's noon ET closing price on 9 June 2026 at zero probability, implying the crowd believes no single bracket will capture that specific candle's settlement value. Bitcoin's intraday volatility and the precision required—a single 1-minute candle at an exact time on Binance—creates genuine execution risk. Historical precedent suggests weekly Bitcoin price brackets rarely trade at extremes; even during periods of consensus directional bias, the probability of any single bracket resolving TRUE typically ranges between 8–25%, reflecting the inherent uncertainty of pinpointing a volatile asset's close within a defined window.

The 0% reading suggests either thin liquidity in this particular market or a structural issue with the bracket design itself. Traders should examine whether the available price ranges actually span Bitcoin's realistic trading band for that date, or if gaps exist between brackets that could trap the settlement price. Market depth on comparable weekly Bitcoin contracts shows that when brackets are properly calibrated, even unfavoured outcomes retain 2–5% implied probability simply from the possibility of flash moves or data feed anomalies.

Catalysts between now and settlement include Federal Reserve communications, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and macroeconomic data releases—all capable of driving intraday swings that could shift which bracket captures the noon close. The current 0% reading presents a contrarian angle if you assess the bracket structure as sound; any non-zero outcome would represent significant value against the consensus.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.