Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing Bitcoin's noon ET close on 31 May 2026 at zero probability for any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which price bracket will resolve or a technical issue with how traders are engaging the market. With nearly eighteen months until settlement, the crowd has effectively abstained from positioning, leaving the entire range undefended.

Bitcoin's spot price behaviour over multi-month windows has historically been shaped by macroeconomic policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and regulatory announcements rather than calendar-specific dates. The 2021 bull run saw Bitcoin move from roughly $29,000 in January to $69,000 by November; the 2022 bear market compressed it from $47,000 to $16,500 across the year. Single-day closes at arbitrary future dates have proven difficult to predict with precision, but the distribution of outcomes across a full year typically clusters around prevailing trend direction and volatility regime rather than random assignment.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy trajectory, which influences risk appetite across crypto markets, alongside any major regulatory developments from the SEC or international bodies that could shift institutional participation. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets has strengthened since 2020, making S&P 500 momentum and inflation expectations relevant signals. The absence of crowd conviction here likely reflects the genuine difficulty in forecasting spot prices eighteen months forward rather than information asymmetry—a situation where value may exist for traders willing to construct a view on Bitcoin's medium-term range rather than waiting for consensus to crystallise.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.