Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance is seeking between $2m and $4m via a public sale on MetaDAO, with $2.315m already secured through soft institutional commits. The prediction market asks whether total public commitments will exceed the title’s threshold before the raise closes on 31 August 2026. With crowd-implied probability at 99% YES, the market treats success as virtually certain, positioning the outcome as a heavy favourite against any underdog scenario where the target is missed.

Historically, MetaDAO raises with pre-committed institutional backing have consistently cleared minimum thresholds, as seen in prior projects like Hurupay and the $2.2m round MetaDAO itself secured from Paradigm. The 99% pricing reflects this pattern: when soft commits exceed the minimum, public participation typically fills the gap. Contrarian value would only exist if the threshold in the title is set unusually high—near the $4m cap—where demand might falter despite strong institutional interest.

Traders should monitor the live “committed” figure on Credible’s official sale page, particularly after the curated raise launches on 13 July, as noted by MetaDAO’s X announcement. Key catalysts include any updates on valuation caps (currently capped at $9m) and whether community demand pushes commitments toward the $4m upper bound. A recent Ventureburn report confirms Paradigm’s $5.9m token acquisition signals sustained institutional confidence, reinforcing the likelihood of the threshold being met.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.