What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 June 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across multiple exchanges, with settlement likely based on major reference points such as CME closing prices or volume-weighted averages. The 1% implied probability reflects consensus that Bitcoin will not reach a specific threshold on that date—though the market description omits the actual price target, making this a soft-target market where precision matters enormously.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin's daily ranges provides context. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has routinely moved 5–10% intraday, with occasional 15% swings during high-impact news cycles. However, hitting an extreme price point on a single predetermined date is statistically rare; the constraint of a fixed calendar day dramatically reduces the odds versus open-ended price targets. The 1% crowd probability sits well below Bitcoin's typical daily movement frequency, suggesting either an extremely high or extremely low price target, or that traders view June 2026 as a period of expected stability relative to the threshold in question.

Catalysts between now and settlement include Federal Reserve policy decisions, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency custody or trading. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and USD strength remains material; any significant shift in rate expectations or geopolitical risk appetite could compress or expand intraday ranges. Spot ETF flows and options expiry dates also influence short-term volatility. The settlement window closing on 14 June gives traders a narrow margin for late-day moves, meaning overnight Asian and European session activity will carry outsized weight.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.