China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

China’s second-quarter 2026 GDP growth has already been printed at 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest quarterly pace since late 2022 and a miss against the 4.5% consensus forecast [1][2]. This real-world print settles the market immediately, as the settlement window closes on 16 July 2026 after the National Bureau of Statistics release [1][4]. The crowd-implied 0% probability on any “YES” outcome (presumably a bracket above 4.6% or a target miss) is therefore correct: the data is in, and it sits firmly below Beijing’s 4.5%–5.0% full-year target [1][5].

Historically, Q2 prints in China have tended to decelerate from Q1 when domestic demand weakens, as seen in the drop from 5.0% in Q1 to 4.3% in Q2 2026 [1][2]. Comparable misses in recent years often triggered immediate policy reassessments, but the 4.3% figure, while below target, remains inside the broader 4.4%–4.6% 2026 projection range from the World Bank and Reuters polls [2][7]. The underdog here is any scenario implying growth above 4.6%; the favourite is the 4.3%–4.6% bracket, which Polymarket traders already price at 100% [6].

Traders should watch for any follow-up stimulus announcements or revisions to the “Preliminary Accounting Results” before the settlement deadline, though the initial print is unlikely to change [1][4]. The key catalysts remain the property sector’s drag, which Goldman Sachs expects to narrow slightly, and export strength, which may offset weak consumption [9]. With the data already released and the consensus miss confirmed, there is no value in contrarian bets on higher growth; the market’s 0% YES probability reflects the settled reality of a 4.3% print [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.