Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruption since mid-2024 following Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent regional tensions. The market asks whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average by IMF Portwatch—will recover to 60 or above by end-April 2026. The current 0% implied probability reflects the depth of the disruption: pre-crisis baseline transit calls typically ranged between 60 and 80 daily arrivals across all vessel classes.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on the nature of the shock. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict caused temporary Suez Canal congestion but resolved within months as shipping adapted routes. The 1973 Yom Kippur War disrupted Middle Eastern shipping for weeks. However, sustained regional instability—as opposed to discrete events—has historically produced longer recovery windows. The current situation involves both active military threats and insurance-cost escalation, both of which dampen traffic independently of physical blockade.

Catalysts to monitor include any ceasefire agreement involving Houthi forces, shifts in US naval presence or escort policies, and insurance premium normalisation. Recent reporting from maritime insurers indicates premiums remain elevated despite reduced attack frequency through early 2025. Any formal de-escalation announcement would likely trigger rapid repricing, as would evidence of alternative routing becoming economically unviable, forcing shippers back through the strait. The 16-month settlement window provides material time for geopolitical resolution, though the consensus pricing at 0% suggests traders view such recovery as highly unlikely within this timeframe.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.