Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is whether Donald Trump will resign, be removed, or otherwise cease to be President of the United States before the end of 2026. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 10% YES, suggesting the market views permanent removal as an underdog outcome. Historically, no U.S. president has ever been removed via impeachment; Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton and Trump himself were all impeached but acquitted by the Senate[1][2][3]. Richard Nixon resigned before formal impeachment, making him the sole precedent for voluntary exit[8]. These cases frame the 10% as a contrarian spot: while Trump faces unique legal vulnerabilities, including 34 felony convictions in 2024, removal remains constitutionally improbable[1].

Traders should watch for catalysts such as Senate impeachment votes, Supreme Court rulings on Trump’s legal challenges, or announcements invoking the 25th Amendment for temporary incapacity—though only permanent removal qualifies here[4]. Recent news highlights the Smithsonian’s removal of Trump’s impeachment records from its presidency exhibit, underscoring political sensitivity around his tenure[7]. Key dates include potential House impeachment resolutions and any scheduled court hearings in New York or federal cases. The consensus leans heavily toward “No”, but value may sit in the 10% if legal pressures escalate unexpectedly. Monitor congressional schedules and judicial timelines for early signals of a shift.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.