Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
60% | 40% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
60% | 40% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) | 60% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 55% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 39% |
| Map 2 Winner | 25% |
| Map 1 Winner | 24% |
| Match Winner | 18% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-9.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
EYEBALLERS meet FaZe in a best-of-three BLAST Bounty qualifier, and the market is pricing EYEBALLERS at **35%** to win, implying FaZe are the clear favourite at around **65%**. That sits broadly in line with the wider betting and fan consensus, which also leans strongly towards FaZe rather than an upset. One recent preview had FaZe around **1.65–1.77** to win outright, while EYEBALLERS were given longer prices and only a modest chance to take at least one map.[2][3]
For handicapper context, the historical read is straightforward: FaZe are the more established side, but these qualifiers can compress edge when vetoes matter and best-of-three variance rises. Comparable listings around this match showed FaZe ahead in team ranking and form, with EYEBALLERS coming in as the underdog and on a weaker recent run.[4] The contrarian angle is that a 35% line already bakes in a meaningful upset chance, so value on EYEBALLERS is more about map-level resilience than a clean series win; if they can force a favourable veto, the underdog price looks less extreme than the outright tag suggests.
The main catalysts are confirmation of the schedule, the final map veto, and whether the match starts on time, because any postponement beyond the settlement window changes how the market resolves. BLAST’s match page has the fixture on record and, in a later meeting between the same teams at the same event series, FaZe still went on to lose 2-1 to EYEBALLERS, showing that a heavy favourite is not immune in this format.[1] Traders should watch for roster news, stand-ins, or broadcast updates, as a late substitution or delay is the kind of dependency that can shift both price and settlement risk.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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