Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Refuser face Game Master in a lower bracket quarterfinal of the International China Closed Qualifier, a regional playoff determining which Chinese teams advance toward TI qualification. The match is scheduled for 17 June at 12:00 AM ET as a best-of-three series. The crowd-implied probability sits at 100% for Team Refuser, suggesting near-certainty of their victory.

The 100% probability reflects Team Refuser's established standing within the Chinese Dota 2 competitive hierarchy. Team Refuser has consistently qualified for major tournaments and maintains a roster with proven international experience, whilst Game Master operates as a lower-tier regional competitor with limited track record at closed qualifier events. Historical patterns in Chinese regional qualifiers show that seeding and prior tournament performance correlate strongly with match outcomes, particularly in lower bracket stages where the skill gap between established and emerging organisations widens considerably.

The settlement window closes on 17 June at 10:00 AM ET, providing a two-hour buffer after the scheduled start time. Traders should monitor for fixture delays or cancellations, which remain possible given the compressed scheduling typical of regional qualifiers. Any announcement regarding roster changes, stand-ins, or technical issues affecting either team would materialise through official Dota Pro Circuit channels or team social media in the 48 hours preceding the match. The extreme probability leaves minimal margin for upsets, suggesting the market has already priced in Team Refuser's competitive advantage comprehensively.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.