Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

The International 2026 Group Stage will feature TEAM VISION facing Team Falcons in a best-of-three Dota 2 match on 13 August at 05:00 ET. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in one outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful market price. Given that both organisations have competed at recent Majors and neither has disbanded, a complete absence of backing for either side warrants scrutiny rather than acceptance.

Historical precedent from The International's group stages shows that seeding and recent form diverge sharply. Teams arriving as underdogs have frequently upset favourites when roster changes or meta shifts favour their draft pool, particularly in best-of-three formats where adaptation between games matters. TEAM VISION's recent LAN placements and Team Falcons' regional standing will determine whether the market's current flatness reflects genuine parity or simply thin order books. Comparable matches from TI10 and TI11 group stages saw 40–60 splits normalise once trading volume increased.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and scrim results in the week preceding the match, as last-minute substitutions or injury reports have altered group-stage outcomes. Valve's official announcement of the final bracket and any schedule adjustments will clarify whether the 13 August timing holds. Regional qualifier results from both teams' qualifying regions, typically published 2–3 weeks before The International, will provide the most recent competitive data for assessing relative strength. The settlement window closes at 16:05 UTC on match day, allowing only a narrow window for live-trading adjustments.

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.