Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 42% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) | 40% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Game 1 Winner | 37% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
KT Rolster face Gen.G in a best-of-three with the market implying **38%** on KT, so the consensus view is that Gen.G are the favourite and KT are the underdog. That price sits below most public previews, which generally frame Gen.G as the stronger side on season-long form, objective control and closing ability, while KT are described as more volatile and more dependent on early leads sticking.[1][7]
The recent head-to-head record also supports the favourite case: Gen.G have beaten KT in multiple recent series, including a 3-0 in late July and another 2-0 in prior LCK play, which is the sort of pattern traders usually read as evidence of a structural mismatch rather than a one-off slump.[2][4][5] On that basis, the market’s 38% on KT looks more like a live underdog number than a true coin-flip, although KT’s upside is that they have shown enough early-game competence to make maps competitive if they avoid mid-game collapses.[1][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are lineup confirmation, any schedule changes, and whether the match starts on time, because the settlement rules can revert to 50-50 if the series is not played or is delayed beyond seven days. The pre-match outlook is otherwise stable: one current preview reports no major roster changes or injuries for either side, and the expected Gen.G core remains Chovy, Canyon and Kiin, which is central to the favourite thesis.[7][11] A contrarian KT position usually needs a stronger case that draft or patch conditions favour their more proactive style, rather than relying on recent form alone.[7][11]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legen… on Who Will Win
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →