LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Platform comparison

Market context

Nongshim Red Force versus DN SOOPers is priced as a **Nongshim favourite** at a crowd-implied **70%**, which is a little shorter than several pre-match models that sit closer to the low-70s on Nongshim and leave DN SOOPers as the clear outsider. That means the consensus is that Nongshim should win the best-of-three more often than not, but the market is not pricing this as a lock; the value case for contrarians is the same one that has driven prior DN upset bids, namely that a single draft edge and a cleaner mid-game can flip a short series.[3][11][13]

The historical frame leans Nongshim, but not overwhelmingly so. Nongshim have taken more of the recent head-to-heads, including a 2-1 win in May, while DN SOOPers did beat Nongshim 2-1 earlier in the LCK Cup 2026 run.[2][13][16][17] Comparable previews also show the split in opinion: some models have Nongshim around 73% and others have DN much higher than that, suggesting the market is still digesting how much weight to give Nongshim’s stronger recent form versus DN’s upset ceiling.[3][11][10]

The key catalysts are simple but important: whether the match starts on schedule, whether there is any late roster or map-side information, and whether the series plays out as expected in the Rise Group slot. Sofascore listed the match for 10:00 UTC, matching the scheduled window, so any delay, postponement or abandonment would matter directly for settlement.[1] From a trading angle, the biggest watchpoint is pre-game line-up confirmation, because a stable Nongshim five generally supports the favourite case, while any disruption would strengthen the contrarian DN angle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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