Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TEC Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
TEC Esports face All Gamers in a VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega best-of-three, with the match originally set for 5:00AM ET on 20 July. All Gamers enter as the clear favourite, backed by their VCT 2026 China Kickoff title and a stronger Stage 1 finish, while TEC has shown inconsistent results and lower regional placement [1]. Head-to-head history heavily favours All Gamers, including a prior 3-0 series win, and factors like roster stability and map pool familiarity reinforce the consensus [1].
Historical precedents in regional Valorant show that teams with recent title success and dominant head-to-head records rarely lose to inconsistent opponents, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for TEC plausible but extreme. Strafe users predict All Gamers with 86.6% of votes, aligning with the market’s heavy lean, though contrarian value could sit if TEC’s roster shows unexpected cohesion or if All Gamers suffer fatigue from back-to-back Group Omega matches [3]. The consensus is firmly on All Gamers, but value may emerge if TEC’s underperformance is overstated relative to their actual map competitiveness.
Traders should monitor official VCT China announcements for roster changes or schedule shifts, as well as any delay notifications beyond the seven-day settlement window, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution [1]. Recent Strafe data confirms the overwhelming favourite status, but any pre-match news on TEC’s form or All Gamers’ map pool adjustments could shift implied probabilities [3]. Watch for live roster confirmations and match-day updates, as these are the primary catalysts for probability movement in this Group Omega matchup.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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