Ethereum price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 25 May 2026, roughly eighteen months from now. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the "Yes" outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific price bracket or minimal trading activity. With such a distant settlement date and a binary structure tied to a precise intraday snapshot, the market reflects genuine uncertainty about Ethereum's trajectory across a volatile period.

Historical precedent suggests that long-dated cryptocurrency price markets often see late-stage repricing as catalysts accumulate. Ethereum's price action has repeatedly surprised consensus forecasts during regulatory shifts, major network upgrades, and macroeconomic pivots. The 0% implied probability here likely reflects either that the "Yes" bracket sits far outside current spot price expectations, or that traders have simply not engaged with such a distant resolution. Comparable markets on other assets show that eighteen-month windows typically see substantial probability migration as new information arrives.

Key variables to monitor include Ethereum's scaling roadmap execution, regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, and broader cryptocurrency adoption trends. The Shanghai upgrade cycle and subsequent network improvements have historically driven material repricing. Traders should watch for announcements regarding Ethereum's consensus layer changes, layer-two ecosystem maturation, and any significant shifts in institutional adoption or central bank digital currency frameworks that might affect demand for decentralised infrastructure. Macro interest rate expectations and risk sentiment will also influence positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.