Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is whether the Federal Open Market Committee will lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across its April, June, and July 2026 meetings. With the crowd-implied probability of a qualifying cut sitting at 0%, the consensus firmly bets the Fed will hold rates steady at the current 3.50%–3.75% range, viewing the favourite as a "no cut" outcome[1][4]. Historically, the Fed has maintained rates for extended periods when inflation remains sticky, as seen in the hold since December 2025 following a single cut[2]. In comparable cycles, such as the 1990s, the Committee rarely cut rates unless unemployment spiked significantly, suggesting the 0% probability is not an outlier but a reflection of the Fed’s dual mandate to prioritise inflation control over premature easing[8].

Traders should watch the upcoming FOMC statements on April 29, June 17, and July 29, alongside the monthly inflation data releases that directly influence the Committee’s stance[1][6]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of inflationary pressures; recent analysis from Fidelity notes that rising inflation has led investors to increase bets on a potential hike before year-end, though derivatives markets still imply a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate hike by December[2]. A contrarian angle might emerge if the Iran deal news accelerates, potentially dampening inflation expectations and creating value in the "cut" position if the market overreacts to the hold narrative[2]. The value spot likely sits where the consensus underestimates the impact of a cooling labour market, which could force the Fed to pivot earlier than the current 0% probability suggests[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.