Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory over the next three months hinges on three consecutive FOMC decisions: late July, mid-September, and late October. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any rate cut across this window, implying confidence in a hold or hike scenario. The upper bound of the federal funds rate stands at 5.50% following the June meeting, and traders are pricing in either stability or further tightening through October's settlement.

Historical precedent suggests the market's caution is warranted. Between 2022 and 2023, the Fed executed eleven consecutive 25-basis-point hikes before pausing, then held steady for an extended period before cutting commenced in September 2024. The current environment differs materially: inflation has moderated substantially from its 2022 peak, yet core PCE remains above the Fed's 2% target. The zero-probability reading on cuts reflects the consensus view that three months is insufficient runway for the economic data to deteriorate enough to justify easing, particularly given the Fed's demonstrated preference for gradual policy shifts rather than abrupt reversals.

Traders should monitor June and July employment reports, inflation data releases, and Fed communications closely. Chair Powell's testimony before Congress in late July will precede the first FOMC decision and typically signals directional intent. Recent commentary from Fed officials has emphasised data dependency; any sharp deterioration in labour market conditions or a sustained dip in inflation could shift expectations materially. The market's current positioning leaves substantial room for a contrarian cut scenario if economic conditions weaken unexpectedly, though the baseline remains a hold through October.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.