Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to decide on interest rates at three upcoming meetings in June, July, and September 2026, with the market currently pricing zero probability for a rate cut. The June 16–17 meeting already concluded with rates held steady at 3.50%–3.75%, and the dot plot shifted decisively from cuts to hikes, with nine of eighteen officials now projecting at least one increase before year-end[4][5].

Historically, when the Fed’s internal projections flip from easing to tightening amid inflation above target, cuts become exceptionally rare. In the June 2026 minutes, no official expected a reduction until early 2027, and renewed Middle East tensions have pushed September hike odds to roughly 70%[3]. Short-term futures now reflect a greater likelihood of a hike by September than a hold, reinforcing the 0% cut probability as aligned with official consensus rather than a contrarian outlier[2].

Traders should monitor the July 28–29 and September 15–16 FOMC announcements, the Summary of Economic Projections released alongside each, and inflation data leading into those meetings. CME FedWatch currently prices a 49.5% chance of a September hike, rising to 68.8% by mid-July, while Goldman Sachs sees no cuts until 2027[1][3][11]. With inflation at 3.6% and the median year-end rate projection at 3.8%, the value spot lies in the hike side, not the cut side, making the 0% cut price a fair reflection of hawkish policy reality[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.