Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve will hold three policy meetings between March and June 2026, with the crowd currently pricing zero probability of any rate change across this window. The market is essentially betting the Fed holds the upper bound of its target federal funds rate steady at all three sessions: 17–18 March, 28–29 April, and 16–17 June.

The 0% YES reading reflects a consensus view that inflation remains sufficiently contained and labour markets stable enough to warrant no adjustment. Historical precedent matters here: the Fed held rates flat through entire multi-month stretches in 2018, 2019, and again in 2023–2024 when economic conditions supported patience. However, the market's absolute certainty warrants scrutiny. Even during the most dovish holding periods, tail risks—sudden inflation spikes, labour market deterioration, or financial stability concerns—occasionally forced unscheduled moves or shifted expectations sharply. The 0% reading leaves no room for surprise economic data or geopolitical shocks that could alter the Fed's calculus by June.

Traders should monitor February and March inflation releases, February employment figures, and any Fed communications signalling concern about price pressures or growth. The March FOMC statement will be the first real test; if officials signal heightened vigilance on inflation or hint at future tightening, market pricing could shift materially. Conversely, weak jobs data or a softening labour market in the weeks before April or June meetings could introduce cut probabilities that the current market entirely discounts. The value angle sits in recognising that absolute certainty in monetary policy is rare; even modest probability assigned to either direction represents a contrarian position against the crowd's consensus hold.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.