WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Front-month WTI crude oil is trading around the mid-$70s, so a close above the threshold in this market is the **favourite** outcome only if the line has been set materially below spot; the crowd-implied **0% YES** price suggests the market has effectively written off that possibility. Recent reporting put WTI near $75.77 later in Wednesday’s session, with other trackers showing it nearer $74.63 after a three-day slide, while a separate futures feed had the August contract around $79.77 intraday, underscoring how much depends on the exact settlement reference used[1][2][7].

Historically, crude markets can swing several dollars in a single session on geopolitics and inventory data, so the right comparison is not the day’s headline move but whether price action holds into the settlement window. On this day, traders were weighing hopes of a Strait of Hormuz arrangement against mixed EIA stock signals, a combination that had already driven a sharp sell-off followed by a modest rebound[1][7]. That leaves the contrarian angle in the underdog case: if the contract stays pinned below the strike into the close, the 0% view is justified; if late-session buying or a fresh supply headline lifts WTI, the “no chance” pricing can be too neat.

Catalysts to watch are the close in the NYMEX front-month contract, any official Middle East shipping or diplomacy headlines, and fresh U.S. inventory commentary that can reset intraday momentum quickly[1][19]. Market context from Wednesday’s coverage points to traders focusing on Hormuz-related talks and the latest EIA print rather than demand growth, which means the session’s final hours matter more than the morning tape[1][7]. In handicapper terms, consensus is firmly on the underdog side for a break above the line, but that also leaves the most obvious value spot with any late squeeze rather than with a quiet drift lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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