WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil closed at $74.95 per barrel on 9 July 2026, a level that decisively places the “closes above ___” outcome in the favourite category for any threshold below $75. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for closing above the unspecified threshold reflects a consensus that the market has already settled well above most likely strike prices, with Polymarket traders assigning 99% confidence to outcomes of $69, $70 and $71 [1]. This mirrors historical patterns where WTI futures, after opening near $74.74 on 9 July, held firm through the session despite minor intraday volatility, suggesting that July 9 closings in recent years have consistently exceeded $70 [4][7].

Traders should watch OPEC+ supply decisions and US administration drilling policies, as these remain primary drivers of Brent and WTI price movements [2]. Recent data shows Brent crude reached $79.25 per barrel on 9 July, with WTI tracking at $70.48 the day prior, indicating strong upward momentum across benchmarks [2][3]. The value spot for contrarian angles lies in thresholds above $75, where the 0% YES probability may be overly pessimistic given the day’s closing price of $74.95 and the Aug 2026 futures contract trading at $74.38 with a +0.86% gain [5][7]. Any surprise inventory draw or geopolitical tension could push WTI decisively above $75, creating a potential mispricing in the current market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.