WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 11 June 2026 at some closing price; the market is currently pricing zero probability that it closes above an unspecified threshold. The 0% crowd reading suggests either an extreme strike price far removed from realistic trading ranges, or insufficient liquidity and participant engagement at this early stage. Historical precedent shows WTI rarely trades below $40 per barrel in normal market conditions, and has spent most of the past five years between $60 and $90. A 0% probability typically reflects either a strike so distant from fair value that no rational trader would back it, or a market simply awaiting definition and initial price discovery.

The eighteen-month settlement window to June 2026 encompasses multiple demand cycles, geopolitical flashpoints, and OPEC+ production decisions. Traders should monitor quarterly inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, any escalation in Middle Eastern tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz, and announcements from OPEC+ regarding output quotas—the cartel's next scheduled meeting falls in early 2026. Macroeconomic headwinds, particularly recession signals or Chinese demand weakness, have historically compressed WTI valuations, whilst supply disruptions or dollar weakness tend to support prices. The specific strike price remains the critical variable; without it, the 0% reading is largely noise rather than signal.

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.