England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June. The market prices any exact scoreline at 9% implied probability, suggesting the crowd views a specific outcome as unlikely—a rational position given the combinatorial nature of exact-score betting. Historical precedent supports this scepticism: across major tournament group stages, exact scores cluster heavily around narrow margins (1–0, 1–1, 2–1), whilst scorelines beyond 3–0 or involving four-plus goals remain statistical outliers. England-Croatia's previous meeting at Euro 2020 ended 1–0 to England after extra time; their 2018 World Cup semi-final finished 2–1 to Croatia. Both encounters produced low-scoring, tightly contested affairs, establishing a pattern of defensive solidity and limited goal gluts between these sides.

The 2026 tournament structure places this fixture in the group phase, where tactical caution typically prevails and teams prioritise avoiding defeat over attacking ambition. Squad composition matters considerably: England's defensive depth and Croatia's experience managing tournament pressure both favour controlled, low-scoring outcomes. Traders should monitor team news closer to June—injuries to key defenders or attacking midfielders could shift expected goal distributions. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on match day, allowing no margin for late postponements or rescheduling disputes. Given the 9% crowd probability, value may exist in scorelines that historical data suggests occur with higher frequency (1–0, 1–1, 2–1) if those specific outcomes trade at lower odds than their underlying probability warrants.

Methodology

We track England vs. Croatia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.