Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas formally agreeing to disarm in Gaza by the end-2025 deadline remains a long shot: the market’s **0% YES** implies the crowd sees no credible path to an official surrender of weapons on the current terms. Consensus is still firmly on **No**, because Hamas has repeatedly said any disarmament talks depend on an Israeli withdrawal, guarantees on Gaza’s future, and broader political conditions rather than a unilateral handover of arms.[1][2][4]

That scepticism is consistent with the historical pattern. Hamas has treated its arsenal as leverage and, across multiple reports this year, has rejected a phased disarmament plan, refused unilateral demilitarisation, and drawn a line between “disarmament” and any narrower weapon handover arrangement.[4][7][11][12] AP reported that the Trump-backed framework envisions complete decommissioning of Hamas weaponry, starting with heavy arms and moving towards lighter weapons, but that outline has not translated into an official Hamas commitment.[6] For a handicapper, that leaves Hamas as the underdog to agree outright, with any value more likely on *No* unless negotiations abruptly shift from conditional bargaining to a public acceptance statement.

Catalysts to watch are concrete, not rhetorical: a formal Hamas statement, a mediators’ draft that explicitly links Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction to weapons decommissioning, or a ceasefire phase-change that forces Hamas to clarify its position.[1][3][8] Reuters reported in April that Hamas would not even discuss disarmament without assurances of full Israeli withdrawal, while June reporting said Hamas was still setting preconditions and only signalling at most a willingness to surrender heavy weapons under a broader plan.[1][3] The key tradeable risk is a partial or conditional announcement being framed as “disarmament” by the market rules, but the current information flow still favours stalemate over a clean yes.[6][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.