Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te faces a formal impeachment motion in the Legislative Yuan before June 30, 2026. The market implies a 3% probability of this occurring, positioning impeachment as a substantial underdog outcome. For context, Taiwan has never successfully impeached a sitting president through the Legislative Yuan; the only presidential impeachment proceeding occurred in 2000 against Chen Shui-bian, which failed to advance. The threshold is high: impeachment requires a majority vote in the 113-seat chamber, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holding 51 seats as of the 2024 elections. The opposition Chinese Unification Promotion Party and Kuomintang collectively hold sufficient seats to initiate proceedings, but converting that into a successful vote would require defections from the DPP or unprecedented cross-party consensus on grounds serious enough to overcome party loyalty.

The catalysts that could shift this outcome centre on major scandals or constitutional crises. Lai's administration has faced scrutiny over various governance issues, though nothing approaching impeachment-grade severity to date. The Legislative Yuan's schedule and any significant corruption allegations, military incidents, or constitutional violations would be the primary drivers. Recent reporting from Taiwan's media outlets has focused on routine legislative business rather than impeachment momentum. The 18-month window provides time for circumstances to change materially, but the structural difficulty of assembling the necessary votes and the absence of current political pressure suggest the 3% probability reflects genuine long-odds positioning rather than undervaluation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.