US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any substantive portion of that agreement text enters the public domain by 1 July 2026—a thirteen-day window following the announced signing date.

The crowd's 90% confidence reflects a straightforward historical pattern: major bilateral agreements between the US and Iran have consistently been disclosed publicly within weeks of formalisation. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released within days of adoption. Even the 1981 Algiers Accords, which resolved the hostage crisis, had their terms made public promptly through official channels and media reporting. Partial disclosure—whether through government statements, legislative briefings, or leaked documents—has preceded full publication in nearly every comparable case. The thirteen-day settlement window captures the standard lag between signing and substantive public availability, making the high probability defensible on precedent alone.

The key catalyst remains the 19 June signing ceremony itself. Traders should monitor whether either government issues a formal text release alongside the ceremony, as this would resolve the market immediately. Congressional notification requirements in the US typically trigger within days of agreement finalisation, creating a secondary disclosure pathway. Iranian state media and official statements often accompany major diplomatic announcements with textual summaries or excerpts. The main downside risk—pushing towards the 10% underdog position—centres on whether either party classifies portions as sensitive, delaying full disclosure beyond the 1 July deadline. Recent precedent suggests this outcome remains unlikely given the agreement's public announcement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.