Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport's recorded high temperature on 9 June 2026 will determine the settlement range. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely or the implied range sits outside typical June conditions for New York City. Historical data shows early June highs in the 75–85°F range at LaGuardia, with occasional spikes to 90°F during heat waves. The settlement hinges on official readings from Wunderground's historical database for that specific station and date, making this a straightforward meteorological outcome rather than an interpretive one.

June typically marks the transition into summer heat across the northeastern United States. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlook and any Atlantic hurricane activity tracking towards the region in early June could shift conditions significantly. A blocking high-pressure system would drive temperatures upward; conversely, a coastal low or tropical moisture would suppress them. Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day forecasts as June approaches, alongside any notable weather pattern shifts reported in mid-May meteorological briefings. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, allowing only morning forecast updates to influence late positioning.

The current 0% probability likely reflects either thin liquidity or a consensus that the market's temperature bands are poorly calibrated relative to typical June weather. Value may exist in ranges capturing 80–90°F outcomes, which represent plausible but not extreme conditions for that date and location. Historical volatility in early summer temperatures suggests the crowd may be underweighting moderate heat scenarios.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.