ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan

Platform comparison

Market context

India face Afghanistan in a one-day international scheduled for 13 June 2026, with the crowd-implied probability sitting at 83% in India's favour. This reflects the substantial gap in playing strength between the two sides, though Afghanistan have demonstrated genuine competitive capacity in recent ODI cricket.

Historically, India's record against Afghanistan in ODIs shows dominance, though the margin has narrowed considerably since Afghanistan's admission to Test cricket in 2018. In their last five completed ODI encounters, India have won four, with Afghanistan's sole victory coming in 2019. The 83% probability aligns with India's status as a top-ranked side with superior depth in batting and bowling, yet the 17% underdog price for Afghanistan is not extreme given their recent trajectory. Afghanistan have beaten higher-ranked opponents in limited-overs formats through aggressive batting and disciplined spin bowling, suggesting the consensus may slightly undervalue their chances.

Key variables for traders include team composition announcements—India's squad selection will determine whether they field a full-strength XI or rotate players ahead of other commitments in mid-2026. Afghanistan's injury status, particularly among their key pace bowlers and batting anchors, will materially affect their competitive range. Venue conditions in the scheduled location and recent form heading into June will also shift expectations. Any late-stage squad changes or fitness concerns for India's core players could shift the probability meaningfully, as would confirmation of Afghanistan fielding their strongest available XI.

Methodology

This page reviews ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.