0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, has seen shipping traffic surge to its highest level in two months following a US–Iran deal to halt war, with 25 commercial vessels recorded on 25 June—marking the busiest day since April [1][3]. Despite earlier severe disruptions from US–Israel–Iran conflict that reduced transit volumes since February 28, 2026, the agreement finalized on 17 June guarantees immediate restoration of commercial navigation [2][3].

Historically, zero-transit days in Hormuz have occurred only during active military closures or coordinated blockade attempts, such as the brief suspension noted on live trackers where the strait was declared “closed” amid oil crisis escalation [4]. Given the current post-deal rebound and IMF PortWatch’s ongoing monitoring of reduced traffic since February, a complete halt to all ship types—including tankers and bulk carriers—is highly improbable, aligning with the crowd-implied 0% YES probability [8].

Traders should watch for any reversal in the June 17 peace framework, new Joint Maritime Information Centre advisories, or sudden insurance premium spikes that could signal renewed risk [7]. A contrarian angle would require evidence of a coordinated Iranian closure or unexpected US naval intervention, neither of which is indicated in recent reporting; consensus remains firmly on “No,” with no value spot apparent unless geopolitical tensions re-escalate sharply [6][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.