Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US-Iran ceasefire is the event in play, and the market is pricing it as a heavy favourite at 98% YES. That implies traders see only a small risk of an outright break, with the consensus view that the truce is holding unless there is a clear, publicly confirmed U.S. strike on Iranian soil before expiry. In handicapper terms, the underdog is a renewed kinetic escalation, and the current price leaves very little room for contrarian value unless you think the reporting threshold is too low or the bilateral arrangement is more fragile than headlines suggest.

Comparable ceasefires in the region have tended to be messy but durable enough to outlast the initial shock. The earlier Iran-U.S. truce in April produced a sharp relief rally in equities and a large drop in crude, but the first signs of strain did not automatically translate into a full collapse of the deal; markets initially treated violations as bargaining noise rather than a restart of war. That is the useful frame here: once a ceasefire is embedded, the base case is usually continuation, while the real risk sits in a sudden, clearly attributable military action rather than rhetoric, sanctions pressure, or proxy friction.

The main catalysts are official statements, scheduled talks, and any credible reporting around U.S. military activity. A recent report from Fortune noted the earlier truce was already being tested by alleged violations and that markets barely flinched, which shows how much of the risk premium has been stripped out. For this market, the key dependency is whether Washington publicly confirms a strike, or whether enough credible outlets do so within the one-day confirmation window. Short of that, the consensus should stay anchored near YES, with the only real value case being a sharp deterioration that is fast enough and clearly documented enough to satisfy the resolution rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.