US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The crowd is pricing an 85% chance that the United States and Iran will formalise any written agreement by end-July 2026. This spans everything from a narrow technical accord to a comprehensive nuclear deal, provided both parties sign documents that substantively reflect mutual acceptance of the same underlying terms.

Historical precedent suggests such agreements are rare but achievable. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took roughly two years of intensive negotiation before signature, whilst the 1981 Algiers Accords resolving the hostage crisis materialised within months under acute pressure. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent "maximum pressure" sanctions regime created a structural break in US-Iran diplomatic architecture. Since Biden's 2021 inauguration, indirect talks through Oman have produced no signed accord, though both sides have periodically signalled willingness to negotiate. The 18-month window remaining offers genuine scope for agreement, yet the absence of active formal negotiations as of late 2024 and Iran's domestic political constraints heading into 2025 elections present material headwinds.

Traders should monitor announcements from the State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry regarding negotiating timelines, any shift in US sanctions policy, and outcomes of Iran's February 2025 parliamentary elections, which could alter Tehran's negotiating posture. The Strait of Hormuz incidents, regional proxy activity, and Congressional pressure in Washington will all influence whether either side prioritises a deal. A framework agreement or interim accord—not necessarily a comprehensive nuclear settlement—would satisfy the market's definition, lowering the bar for resolution compared to historical JCPOA-scale negotiations.

Methodology

We track US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.