US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The market bets on whether the United States and Iran can sustain a continuous 14-day pause in qualifying military actions before August 2026, a threshold already tested by a two-week truce agreed in April 2026. That earlier ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting hostilities, yet both sides intermittently traded strikes during the pause [2][4]. Historical precedent suggests such short-term truces are fragile; the Twelve-Day War ceasefire between Iran and Israel in June 2025 also held only temporarily before tensions resurfaced [1]. With the crowd-implied probability at just 5% YES, the consensus treats a full 14-day silence as highly unlikely, viewing the current 60-day negotiation window for a final deal as prone to disruption [3][7].

The favourite here is the “No” outcome, reflecting the volatility of interim agreements where technical talks in Switzerland remain unfinalised and the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum is not yet a binding peace [3]. Value may sit contrarian if the 60-day deadline for a final deal passes without escalation, as the US has already issued a 60-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil and lifted its naval blockade [3][5]. Traders should watch for announcements from the Swiss technical talks, any new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the US extends its current truce indefinitely amid rising fears of renewed conflict [13]. A key dependency is whether Iran adheres to its pledge not to develop nuclear weapons under IAEA supervision, a condition that could trigger renewed US action if breached [5]. Recent reports confirm attacks occurred during the April ceasefire, underscoring the risk that the current pause could collapse before the 14-day mark [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.