Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd is pricing a 4% chance that one or more countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz between now and end-July 2026. This narrow waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade and remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive chokepoints. Transit by foreign naval vessels through these waters is neither routine nor trivial; it typically signals either a deliberate show of force, a response to regional escalation, or a formal freedom-of-navigation operation.

Historical precedent suggests the baseline probability should sit higher. The United States Navy conducts regular transits through the Strait, often paired with allied vessels, averaging several operations annually. British, French, and other NATO navies have similarly passed through in recent years, particularly during periods of elevated Iran tensions. The 2019–2020 period saw multiple high-profile transits following the Soleimani assassination and subsequent tanker seizures. Even during relative calm, at least one major power typically executes a transit every 18–24 months. The current 4% implies either an expectation of sustained regional de-escalation or an assumption that the market definition's specificity—requiring explicit confirmation rather than routine operations—will prove restrictive.

Catalysts centre on three variables: whether Iran-US relations deteriorate sufficiently to prompt a deliberate Western naval response; whether ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden escalate to trigger direct intervention in the Strait itself; and whether any regional conflict involving Gulf states materialises. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional monitors shows Houthi activity remains elevated but largely contained to the Red Sea corridor. The absence of announced freedom-of-navigation operations or scheduled multinational exercises through July 2026 currently supports the low probability, though geopolitical momentum can shift rapidly.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.