Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?

Platform comparison

Market context

Super Typhoon Dolphin is already the heavy favourite to make a Japanese landfall, and the market’s **100% YES** price reflects that the storm has been tracking towards the Ryukyu chain and Okinawa in the latest reporting. Recent coverage said Okinawa was expected to take the hit first, with the storm then continuing across nearby Japanese waters and islands, which is consistent with the market’s settlement rule that only needs the circulation centre to cross Japanese coastline, not necessarily the main islands. [2][7][19]

Historically, typhoon markets that reach this stage tend to be priced as near-certain only when the forecast cone, advisory track and short-range model spread all point to the same coastline; otherwise there is still room for a miss, a recurvature, or a brush past offshore. Here, the consensus appears to be centred on Okinawa and the southern island chain rather than mainland Japan, so the key distinction is between “Japan impact” in the casual weather sense and the stricter “centre crosses land” settlement test. That means the residual underdog case is not no impact at all, but a last-minute westward drift, weakening, or a track that stays just offshore. [1][3][8][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the next Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency position updates, plus any revised track guidance that tightens the landfall window. Stars and Stripes reported that model guidance was still showing movement towards Japan, with Kyushu emerging in some solutions, while other reporting pointed more strongly to Okinawa and the Ryukyus, so the value question is whether the market has overpaid for certainty before the official advisories lock in. Any JMA advisory placing the centre over Japanese land would effectively settle the debate, while a southward or offshore adjustment would be the only meaningful contrarian path. [1][2][6][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.