Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits daily, has experienced significant disruption since October 2023 following Houthi attacks on shipping. The market tests whether transit traffic—measured by daily ship arrivals—will recover to a 7-day moving average of 60 calls or higher by the end of June 2026. The 19% implied probability reflects consensus scepticism about normalisation within the settlement window, pricing in sustained geopolitical friction and the possibility of renewed or escalating maritime incidents.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on conflict intensity and resolution mechanisms. The 2019 tanker attacks near the strait saw traffic disrupted for weeks before rebounding once insurance and security protocols stabilised. However, the current Houthi campaign has proven more persistent and operationally sophisticated, with attacks continuing sporadically into 2025 despite international naval presence. Pre-disruption baseline traffic typically ran 60–80 daily transits; reaching the 60-call threshold represents a return to the lower bound of normal operations rather than full recovery.

Traders should monitor three variables: announcements regarding Houthi ceasefire negotiations (tied to broader Yemen peace talks), escalation in US or regional military responses, and insurance premium movements that affect shipping route economics. Recent reporting in January 2025 indicated Houthi capabilities remain intact despite coalition strikes, whilst regional tensions around Iranian nuclear negotiations could shift incentives for all parties. Any breakthrough in Yemen-focused diplomacy or sustained period of attack-free transit would likely trigger rapid repricing downwards, given the market's current underweighting of normalisation scenarios.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.