Market statistics
- Total volume
- $696K
- 24h volume
- $377K
- Liquidity
- $40K
- Open interest
- $9K
- Comments
- 1
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
2% | 98% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
2% | 98% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effec
Wikipedia Context
-
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman Al Saud, also known as MbS, is the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, formally serving as Crown Prince and Prime Minister. He is the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, the seventh son of King Salman, and the grandson of the nation's founder, Ibn Saud.
-
Mohamed bin Zayed Al NahyanMohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also known as MBZ or MbZ, is an Emirati royal and politician who has served as the third president of the United Arab Emirates and the ruler of Abu Dhabi since 2022 and was from 2014 until 2022 the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates.
-
Mohammed bin Rashid Al MaktoumSheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is an Emirati politician and royal who is the current ruler of Dubai, and serves as the vice president and prime minister of the UAE. Mohammed succeeded his brother Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum as UAE vice president, UAE prime minister, and ruler of Dubai following the latter's death in 2006.
-
Mohammed Ben SulayemMohammed Ahmad Sultan Ben Sulayem is an Emirati former rally driver and motorsports executive who serves as president of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA), the governing body of many auto racing events including Formula One.
Methodology
We track Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →