US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing a written US-Iran **final nuclear deal** at **0% implied probability**, but the live diplomatic backdrop is not blank: Washington and Tehran already announced an initial written framework in June, followed by reports of a 60-day negotiation track and technical working groups. That makes the favourite clearly **No**, yet the crowd may be treating the current instrument as if it were only a preliminary MoU rather than a qualifying signed document.

Historically, these talks have often produced headline progress without closing the gap on enrichment, inspections and sanctions relief. In February, Reuters and Axios both reported “progress” and “guiding principles”, but also that major details remained unresolved and that further drafts were needed[4][11]. That pattern matters for handicappers: the underdog angle is that a signed framework already exists and later media reports suggested a signing was possible in Europe[8], while the favourite case is that nuclear talks between the two states have repeatedly stalled at the technical stage, with unresolved issues left hanging even after positive language[6][13].

For traders, the key catalysts are any announcement of a formal adoption or signature, the scheduling of the next round of talks, and whether the sides actually publish a full text rather than another statement of intent. Reuters reported that a signing ceremony in Europe was being discussed and that a 60-day period would then begin[8]; subsequent coverage said working groups would handle sanctions, nuclear affairs and implementation[15]. The consensus still sits with **No**, but the value debate is whether the existing written instrument and any formal adoption process satisfy the market’s wording before the August deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.