Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's nationwide internet shutdown began 28 February 2026 during active military conflict with the United States and Israel. The market prices restoration by 30 April 2026 at 0% implied probability, suggesting traders view a two-month reconnection window as implausibly optimistic given the escalation trajectory. This reflects the severity of the current blackout relative to previous Iranian internet disruptions, which typically lasted days or weeks rather than months.

Historical precedent offers limited comfort for the YES side. Iran's 2019 internet shutdown following fuel price protests lasted approximately one week before partial restoration. The 2022 Mahsa Amini protests saw connectivity disrupted for shorter periods. However, those incidents occurred during domestic unrest rather than active interstate military engagement. A sustained blackout during wartime—particularly one initiated as a strategic measure—operates under fundamentally different constraints. Restoration would require either a ceasefire agreement, de-escalation of hostilities, or a deliberate Iranian decision to restore connectivity despite ongoing conflict, none of which appear imminent.

Traders monitoring this market should track ceasefire negotiations, any statements from Iranian officials regarding infrastructure restoration timelines, and international mediation efforts. Recent reporting from Reuters and Associated Press has emphasised the comprehensive nature of the shutdown, affecting both domestic and international connectivity. The 60-day settlement window is notably tight; even if military tensions ease, restoring nationwide internet infrastructure typically requires weeks of technical work. The 0% probability likely underprices any genuine ceasefire scenario, though the baseline assumption—that conflict persists through April—remains the consensus view.

Methodology

This page reviews Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.